What’s the point? Let’s be clear: Biden is the preferred vote to take back the White House. He heads the swing states needed to get 270 votes, and the numbers are higher than Hillary Clinton’s four years ago.
The Seltzer investigation is an exception to this rule. If that’s the case, Trump is in a much better position than expected and we could be a lot closer to the race than many expected.
Few if any of Biden’s paths to the 270 votes go through Iowa. But if Biden doesn’t do much better in Iowa than Clinton did four years ago, Democrats may fear he won’t do much better elsewhere.
In fact, Trump Iowa can win by a wide margin, heralding unrest in other states, such as critical battlegrounds in the Midwest, such as Michigan and Wisconsin.
Build your own path to 270 voices with CNN’s interactive map.
But as I said before, Iowa’s average research is too close to a challenge. In the past few weeks, many studies have been carried out showing that Biden or Trump was a little ahead or behind (Monmouth University, New York Times/Sienna College and Queennipiaq University).
The reason why the Seltzer poll gave the Democrats and Republicans hope is the story of the Seltzer poll. Four years ago Kozyr got an identical 7-point increase according to the last Seltzer poll in Iowa. Active with 9 points won.
As was the case then, this vote in 2020 will take place amidst the votes in many other states that have an asset in their hands.
Moreover, the example of 2016 is not the only time that Selzer was not afraid to publish an apparent anomaly that was correct. (Another example is the meeting of Democrats in Iowa in 2008).
All this suggests that there are many reasons to doubt that this research in Iowa really says it all. Although Seltzer is a fantastic pollinator, each interviewee has random exceptions. Seltzer was wrong before. Prodders aren’t wizards. It is a sign of good research that they are willing to publish research that is not like others.
In the run-up to the 2020 presidential elections
Talk about rejection: The poll published last week by ABC News/Washington Post in Wisconsin showed that Biden was 17 points ahead. There is no galaxy in this universe where Biden goes 17 points up in Wisconsin and 7 points down in Iowa. But just like the Seltzer research, ABC News/Washington Post can be heard on external frequencies. The truth is almost certainly in there. That’s why the averages work.
But he goes further than normal to understand why Seltzer’s research this year may be different than four years ago.
This year we have many more high-quality government investigations in the field right up to the last minute. Honestly, I don’t see anyone who can reflect what Seltzer sees. Biden’s lead is bigger in all the states that matter. A congressional survey of the president, which shook the Democrats awake in 2016, is much better for them this time.
National surveys are perhaps the most interesting. Last time it was actually this national poll that made me believe that trump in the poll was a normal mistake, far from winning. In the end it turned out that everything was only 1 or 2 points (so very accurate).
This year Biden’s national lead is about 5-6 points higher than Clinton’s in recent days. To believe in the Seltzer survey, one would probably have to believe that the national surveys made the biggest mistake in at least 40 years. I mean, unless there’s something really weird going on in Iowa.
If you dig into the national surveys, you will see that there is more reason to assume that Seltzer is no longer in the running. Iowa is a state with many whites without a university degree.
National polls suggest Trump has control of this important group… Instead, a comparison with the polls for the 2016 elections shows that his lead is about 10 points lower.
If this is the case, the rest of the Midwestern (including Iowa) respondents, not Seltzer, will be much closer to the final results.
Of course you do.
On the other hand, if Trump turns out to be stronger than 2016, the Seltzer research will be our best guide.
Before we say goodbye: The theme song of the week is an old CNN election song.