This is what you need to know:.
San Francisco Civic Center. Jeff Chiu/Associated Press.
California voters will vote on more than a dozen election initiatives for this round, some of which could have serious business implications. The state itself is the fifth largest economy in the world and can set regulatory standards that indicate how the political wind will blow in the rest of the country.
Attention must therefore be paid to the local political tide, even if the focus is on the White House. About $650 million was spent on California’s election proposals, which David McQueen of Sonoma State University calls the second most expensive political exercise in the free world.
The DealBook newsletter discusses three initiatives that could make sense for companies outside California:
It’s done. 15 : Taxation of most large commercial and industrial properties at market value, not at purchase price. The Chang Zuckerberg Initiative, the Zuckerberg Mark Family Foundation, has allocated more than $6.3 million in support and notes that one-tenth of property owners will pay more than 90 percent of the tax. The California Chamber of Commerce rejects this proposal on the grounds that it would harm small businesses and lead to higher food and energy prices. California limited the increase in property tax in the 1970s and inspired similar measures elsewhere; if the initiative goes ahead, local communities in need of income can follow the example of the state again.
It’s done. 22 : Turn demand drivers into independent contractors. A consortium of large companies – including DoorDash, Instacart, Postmates and Uber – has spent more than $200 million to support this offer, enabling companies to prevent their drivers from being classified as employees. This battle is already heralding a wider debate about flexibility and security in the Group’s activities. The Biden campaign is modelled on the Californian approach.
It’s done. 24 : Strengthen data protection legislation and establish a national data protection agency. Supporters of the plan include former Democratic Party presidential candidate Andrew Young, the Mayor of San Francisco in London and real estate magnate Alastair Maktaggart. Big Tech is generally silent on the issue, but some lawyers from Google and Quora have individually signed a letter against the initiative. Critics complain that the offer places the burden of rejection on the shoulders of the individual and can turn privacy into a luxury item. This would allow the codification of an existing law full of problems, according to Eric Goldman, co-director of the Institute of High Technology Law at the University of Santa Clara.
- Stocks collected on Monday, Wall Street recovered from its largest weekly decline since March, and global benchmarks rose in anticipation of what is likely to be a hectic week for the US presidential election.
- The S&P 500 increased by more than 1% at the start of the session, after similar increases in the Stoxx Europe 600, the DAX in Germany and the Nikkei in Japan.
- Wall Street is closed for the second year in a row. Shares in the United States and Europe decreased due to an increase in pandemic cases, further power outages and the sale of large technology shares.
- Fears that new blockages in Europe could weaken economic growth were still present in the energy markets, and crude oil futures losses increased by more than 10% last week, with a slight decline on Monday.
- Several important events are scheduled for next week: The presidential election, the latest estimates from the Federal Reserve and the Bank of England (both Thursday), and then the Department of Labour’s Employment Growth Report of October (Friday).
- Business leaders in Britain are demanding more government support after Prime Minister Boris Johnson announced a new blockade of England on Saturday. Cafes, restaurants and most shops should be open from Thursday to the second floor. The plan remains closed on 31 December, although it has yet to be approved by Parliament. The government’s redundancy programme, which provides for the payment of 80% of employees’ salaries and expires on 1 January 2009, has been abolished. In November it will be extended by one month.
Manhattan’s Macy’s department store closed this week before the election. The loan… Carlo Allegri/Raiter.
The country is on the brink of war as brutal competition for the presidency finally comes to an end, the final sting in a year of bruising, including a pandemic and widespread protests against social justice. For some months now, there has been growing concern that the election results could lead to civil unrest, no matter who wins.
In retail, many companies are not just concerned about possible riots – they plan to do so, according to The New York Times Michael Corkery and Sapna Maheshwari, by entering certain stores, training staff to defuse tensions with customers and trying to determine where to close in the event of violence.
These are not easy decisions. Retailers may run the risk of dissuading their customers by installing plywood fencing, especially if the alleged riots do not occur.
But companies have already suffered at least $1 billion in insurance losses this year due to vandalism, largely as a result of the murder of George Floyd by a Minneapolis police officer in May. This means that 2020 could be the most expensive period of civil unrest in history, probably more than the damage caused by the 1992 riots in Los Angeles and the numerous civil rights protests in the late 1960s.
That’s what the businessmen said about their preparations so far:
- Nordstrom, an elite department store chain, said it plans to enter some of its 350 stores on election day and hire additional security guards.
- Luxury jeweler Tiffany & Company said the windows of selected stores in major cities will be closed pending possible optional activities.
- Fifth Avenue in Saxony has indicated that it will take additional security measures in some places in the event of disturbances in connection with the current elections.
- The famous Macy’s Place in Manhattan’s Herald Square was dropped off Friday.
- A target group of about 1,900 stores said in a press release: Like many other companies, we take precautions to ensure safety in our stores and advise our managers on how to look after their teams.
- A CVS spokesman, who manages nearly 10,000 companies, said our local officials have the authority to take all measures they deem most appropriate to ensure the safety of our company, our employees and our customers. This includes the possibility to choose the location of the store.
- Gap Inc, which has more than 2,000 stores in North America, said it has contingency plans to address any emergency situation and will continue to monitor the situation closely over the next week.
Students in Peshawar, Pakistan, have their hands disinfected before they enter the classroom. Pakistan increased spending on health care, but reduced support for social service programmes as the pandemic spread. Ready …Fayaz Aziz/Reuters
Economists have expressed concern about the inability of the World Bank and the International Monetary Fund to support the poorest countries during the pandemic.
Despite the promises made this year by these two deeply rooted organisations to help poor countries fight the pandemic, the funds are coming slowly.
The World Bank doubled its lending in the first seven months of 2020 compared to the same period last year, but spent the money slowly, according to a study by the Center for Global Development. Of the $280 billion borrowed by the IMF, only $11 billion went to low-income countries.
Economists warn that massive aid is needed to prevent humanitarian disasters in the poorest countries and to ensure that 60% of the world’s 60% classified by the IIF as emerging economies do not suffer long-term damage.
If no serious action is taken, the pandemic could plunge 150 million people into extreme poverty next year, the World Bank warned, noting that this is the first growth in two decades.
A decade of lost growth in many parts of the world remains a credible prospect in the absence of urgent, coherent and consistent policies, according to the latest G-30 report, attended by international financial experts.
Restaurant in Pontoise, France, on Wednesdays. On Friday, the country introduced a new blockade, after which insignificant businesses such as restaurants had to remain closed until December. The loan… Andrea Mantovani for the New York Times…
The resurgence of coronaviruses in France threatens to cause a larger-than-expected slowdown in the country once the fragile recovery begins, the International Monetary Fund said on Monday.
New restrictions to prevent the spread of the virus, including curfews and a second national restriction announced last week, are expected to keep economic activity at a lower level than before the pandemic, according to a report by the France 2020 Foundation, the second largest economy in the euro area.
The outlook has worsened in the face of a second wave of contagion, and the risk of falling is very high, the organization said. If a third wave of the virus hit the country in the future, the prospects for recovery would be even more difficult, the foundation warned.
France has experienced one of the worst collapses in Europe, as the breadth and duration of the blockades have affected economic activity, particularly tourism and the automobile and aeronautical industries, which represent a wide range of activities.
The government has launched an emergency aid programme of about EUR 500 billion (about USD 582 billion) to prevent the collapse of businesses and mass unemployment. The assistance helped the economy to recover during the summer but, depending on developments, additional financial incentives through temporary and targeted measures may be needed, according to the Fund.
Even with relief, the economy is expected to shrink in the fourth quarter and output in 2020 should be about 10 percent lower than all the others, the fund said.
The economy could rebound by 5 to 6 percent next year, and the government would then have to review its aid program to ensure that zombie companies that have become dependent on financial aid do not delay the overall recovery, said Jeffrey Franks, head of the I.M.F. mission in France, at an online briefing.
When the economy recovers, the private sector, rather than the public sector, should probably take the lead in deciding which companies are viable and which go bankrupt, he added.
The extent of the recovery will depend on the development of measures to contain the pandemic, the IMF added. Other risks, she said, are the potentially serious economic consequences of the fracture, increased social tensions and accelerated globalization.
At the same time, France does not create enough jobs to compensate for the number of jobseekers. The Fund urged the government to do more to increase employment, in particular for the low-skilled and young people who may be excluded from the labour market for long periods of time.
A loan… Robert Neubecker.
Whether you are stuck for another four years or are a new Oval Office employee, you can worry about the impact of the election results on your portfolio. But now is not the time to act hastily when it comes to making personal financial decisions, writes Your Money columnist Ron Lieber.
Lieber spoke with financial planners who have worked in the public service for Republicans and Democrats in the past. They gave some useful advice:
- Stick to the important decisions. Emotions are really good at asking questions and really bad at answering them, said Zack Toich, a financial planner in Washington, DC. That’s the truth in life, and it’s certainly the truth in financial decisions. Try not to get too big in the near future.
- Don’t overestimate the change. It is easy to overestimate the number of changes that can be made in the first year of a presidency, especially when it comes to matters that can go straight into the purse, such as taxation, pensions or health care. For example, there would be no point in fundamentally changing the retirement savings strategy pending a change in a particular tax rule.
- Think about why you’re investing. In a short period of time, inventories can lose a significant part of their value. But over a number of decades, they tend to provide you with enough growth to enable you to achieve long-term goals such as retirement and living with money. However, this will only happen if you have the courage (and the discipline and income that remains) to put your money aside regularly and not withdraw it if you think something terrible is going to happen.
- Protect the money you’re about to need. If you have share money that you will need in the coming years, you should reconsider your decision, but not because of what might happen on Tuesday or how politics or policy might affect the markets. It’s just better to invest the money you know you’ll soon need in something less volatile.
- Think about the charity. If the scholarship was good for you – from the Obama administration to the Tromp administration – there might be money left over for others who took a more erratic course.
You may have heard that Tuesday is election day in the United States. Let’s look at the chronology of the results. (The New York Times broadcasts The Daily live for four hours, starting at 4 p.m.). (The New York Times broadcasts live at 4pm Eastern Standard Time) Believe it or not, there’s more.
It’s another great week for corporate profits, with a quarter of the S&P 500 companies opening their books. Noteworthy announcements are PayPal on Monday, Saudi Aramco on Tuesday, Qualcomm on Wednesday, Alibaba, AstraZeneca, General Motors and Uber on Thursday and Marriott and Toyota on Friday. (Beware of unexpected announcements from companies wanting to bury bad news amid the distractions of the elections).
On Thursday, economists expect the Fed to keep interest rates at the same level, but give clues about the strength of the recovery. On the same day, the Bank of England can introduce new incentives when the blockade starts and Braxite (remember?) is fired.
The Ants Group, which has raised more than $34 billion in the largest IPO in the history of mankind, will begin its activities in Hong Kong on Thursday. (It is unclear when trading will start in Shanghai.) Due to the rush to buy shares of the Chinese financial giant, the first day could rage.
Friday’s U.S. employment report is expected to show an increase of 600,000 jobs in October – the fourth consecutive month in which wage growth has slowed and remains more than 10 million below pre-pandemic levels.