The Giants are coming off a disappointing season, while the Brewers have been on fire. Will this be enough for Milwaukee to take down San Francisco?
The faltering San Francisco Giants try to bounce back against the Milwaukee Brewers on Wednesday night as their NL West advantage dwindles dangerously. It’s time to continue our MLB odds series with a prediction and selection for the Brewers vs. Giants matchup.
San Francisco is presently 84-48 overall and 42-21 at home. You’d be up $2,661 on the moneyline if you bet $100 on every Giants game so far this season.
Milwaukee is presently 81-52 on the season and 45-23 on the road. You’d be up $1,093 on the moneyline if you bet $100 on every Brewers game so far this season.
The odds for the Brewers-Giants matchup are as follows.
MLB Betting Odds: Brewers vs. Giants
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Milwaukee Brewers ML (+161); Milwaukee Brewers ML (+161); Milwaukee Brewers
Major League Baseball’s San Francisco Giants (-175)
More than 7.5 Runs (-114)
Runs under 7.5 (-106)
Why the Brewers Have a Chance to Win This Game
The Brewers are baseball’s finest road club. They’ve now won seven of their past ten road games, and they’re still pounding Milwaukee.
They’ve scored four runs or more in seven of their past ten away games, including a 15-run outburst in the last three. Kevin Gausman, who has been struggling recently, may be in danger as a result of this.
Gausman, like opposing pitcher Brett Anderson, is in the midst of his worst stretch of the year. Gausman never allowed more than one earned run once in his first ten outings. He allowed more than one earned five times in his following ten. Gausman has given up multiple runs five times in his previous six outings. In those six games, he has a 3.60 ERA and has walked nine hitters in just 36.0 innings.
The Brewers will benefit greatly from Gausman’s lack of control. They have drawn the seventh-most walks in the big leagues as a club. In addition, the Brewers face the fifth most pitches per plate appearance and the sixth most 2-0 counts.
The Brewers will continue to wreak havoc on Gausman as long as they show some patience.
Milwaukee is relying on Anderson to pitch more like his former self than he has in recent weeks on the mound. The good news for the Brewers is that the lefty has shown he can keep this Giants lineup quiet. Anderson threw five innings against the Giants almost three weeks ago, allowing just one earned run, a single drive to Darin Ruf.
Anderson will benefit from the Giants’ lack of pop against left-handed pitchers this season. When facing southpaws, San Francisco’s OPS and home run rate decrease.
For the Brewers to win, Anderson doesn’t have to be flawless. The Brewers have a shot for the remainder of the game if he can avoid being pummeled in the first three innings.
Why the Giants Have a Chance to Win This Game
The Giants aren’t accustomed to losing after being the greatest team in baseball for almost the whole season. They are on a three-game losing skid for just the third time this season. Kevin Gausman is prepared to prevent it from becoming four.
For the most of the season, Gausman has been the Giants’ top pitcher. In his 26 starts, the Giants have won 17 of them, and he has a 2.49 ERA in 152 innings thrown.
All year, one of Gausman’s assets has been his ability to strike out a lot of batters. In 17 of his 27 starts, he has struck out at least six hitters, giving him a season total of 176 Ks. Against a Brewers club that strikes out a lot (sixth in the league) and struggles to stay off pitches, the righty’s ability to miss barrels will be crucial.
Avisail Garcia, Omar Narvaez, and Rowdy Tellez make up the Brewers’ starting lineup. The chase rates of all three players (35.8%, 30%, and 32.4 percent, respectively) are considerably higher than the MLB average (28.3 percent ). This offense may be in danger if the meat of the order meets a pitcher that is adept at missing bats.
At the bat, San Francisco will face lefty Brett Anderson, who throws softly. Anderson, as previously said, is in the middle of his worst stretch of the season.
The southpaw has failed to throw more than 5 1/3 innings in each of his past three outings, allowing a total of 12 earned runs. His poorest start of the season came against the Pirates only two starts ago. He gave up six runs to a struggling Pittsburgh offense.
Anderson’s situation does not seem to be improving. The Giants’ starting lineup has had his number in the past. The current Giants have 16 hits and three home runs in 55 plate appearances against Anderson, for a combined batting average of.291.
When you consider that the Giants have won two of their previous three games against left-handed starters while allowing just seven earned runs in 14 innings, the offense in San Francisco seems to be in excellent condition for this contest.
Final Brewers-Giants Prediction & Pick
While the moneyline odds for this game are accurate in terms of fairness, the total line offers a lucrative possibility. A total of 7.5 is typically only seen in games with two dominating aces pitching or a poor offense in the mix. In this game, none of these variables are relevant. Gausman is a fantastic pitcher, but his recent outings have shown that he is susceptible to a few runs of damage. Anderson should be able to put up a couple runs of his own with ease. There should be around six runs on the board by the time we get to the sixth inning. The over has gone 7-3 in the past ten occasions a Giants game has been set with a total of 7.5 runs or less. I believe the current trend will continue.
FINAL BREWERS-GIANTS PREDICTION & PICK: OVER 7.5 RUNS (-114)
